The Josh Mac

Smart Quotes!

2009-01-19T09:51:00.000-08:00

A persistent current account surplus is a symptom of unbalanced growth, just as deficit is! Countries that save too little to cover their capital spending are at the mercy of foreign investors; Countries that save too much are at the merch of foreign demand!!

To every action there is equal and opposite reaction :)!!

5th September, 2008! Teacher's Day!!!

2008-09-05T20:25:00.000-07:00

5th September, 2008! -- Teacher's Day!

Does it hold any significance!?? Guess YES!! to most of our teachers!...
(and to me too!, so should it to you....)...

In a mark of 'respect and thanking for their teachings (and time, specially on my doubts!)', I posted a SMS (cited below) to few of my favourite SPJain and REC Professors....

It's interesting (and am really glad and thankful) to see the "intensity of the feelings" in the response's that I got!

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SMS that I posted:
"Happy Teacher's Day! Thanks for everything!" -- 08 18 AM, 5th Sept, 2008.

Response from:
Professor Sanjoy Sarcar (He taught us Corp. fin., and truely for me amongst the best)
" wish there was a students day 2 remind teachers of all the memories students leave behind -part of us that u took wid u and part of u that remaind wid me !" -- 22 34 PM, 5 th Sept, 2008.

Professor Preeta George (She taught us Economics, again, truely amongst the best, and a inspiration indeed)
"Thank you so much dear.its wonderfui when you remember us on this day.god bless" -- 08 31 AM, 5th Sept, 2008.

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View now fromt the other side!! A recent convert!!

" I jst cant explain the euphoric feelin in words! 2day, a full batch of 25 students walked up 2 me n handed over 2 me a bouquet n said 'Happy Teacher's Day Sir'"

This is SMS from a friend of mine (from SPJain): Mr. Parasharan Chari (aka PC). He has set up a coaching institute for CAT/GRE/GMAT in Baroda/VVnagar/Ahmd -- after leavin his BA IT Job. It would be his first time (professionaly) as a teacher, and knowing the amount of effort he puts in the setup (that he is in making), His words and SMS truely reflect his intensity of JOY!

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Sadly, Its 'Opportunity Cost' now, and 'money and time', 'matter the most'!! --- Ritesh Shah (post 15months in finance)

I believe, we guys truely forget our teachers as we grow old (literally!); Guess, we should'nt be doing that!! and believe its our duty to thank them for what all knowledge and inspiration they provided us with!!

Believe me, 'Knowledge nor time' would come for free at Mumbai CBD!! Its not ARROGANCE, but whomsoever you meet, would certainly factor their "OPPORTUNITY COST"; in imparting/sharing the same....

Hence I strongly feel, we should be thankful to our teachers, for their time and efforts in imparting to us (in shortest possible time, at GMBA), to what we are today!!!!

Happy Teacher's Day!! and yes, its still not that late!!! :-)))))))))))))))))

Oil Conundrum!!!

2008-06-30T10:32:00.001-07:00

Benefits of rising crude prices

1) Helps middle east petro-dollars wipe our the US investment bank write-off’s!!
2) Helps propel US economy, considering rising freight costs (proportional to rising crude costs). Rising freight costs offsets the cheaper labor cost advantage that china offers.
E.g. Steel imports to US (from China) dropping significantly, also US domestic
steel production rising significantly. To delve a bit, CIF cost of Chinese per ton HRC (including freight cost of US$90/t) has well exceeded domestic production cost!! (Metals Analyst!!)
Believe the same would be for other goods and commodities, with freight eating
away the china advantage (i.e. wage arbitrage).
3) Depreciating USD – helping exports, also possibility of relocating manufacturing bases back to USA, read somewhere of BMW thinking of re-locating its plant somewhere in US (from Germany), if the trend in EUR/USD continues… too much!! Well if that’s the case then Mr. Ben won’t have to worry about rising unemployment levels!!!
4) Thinking…. …

Disadvantages
1) Obama supporting ethanol policy, his point of contention with rising crude prices stands even stronger. Thou, only at the cost of lower supplies on other crops (as acreage under maize increases), eventually leading to food inflation… India, has nothing to worry, as is self sufficient (on date, except for edible oils)
2) Further political tensions or rift among OPEC???? Vague thoughts….Pardon me..
Just as BHP got freight premium for iron ore supplies to Baosteel, China (price up 90%yoy, against CVRD-Brazil up65%yoy); why could the same not be applied to South American oil producers (say Venezuela, etc) supplying oil to US. Really am not sure on the dynamics of Oil pricing, would need to dig into it…invite thoughts/ideas on this…
3) GS has predicted double digit inflation for rest of year, and Sensex bear case of sub 10k levels…. Well, in that case… I might end up loosing a job  and then shall only write blogs!, also triggering a subprime in India (read tipping point), with PLR’s expected to go up…and no cash inflow , GOD help India’s largest pvt. Bank and me!!!

Oil Conundrum – in triple digits till when!!!

Is really the demand for oil increasing (I don’t think so), and supply increasing (don’t know, recent Saudi announcement doesn’t really change the way things are). Then what is the root cause….

*****Sixth Sense says, Post US Elections…. Things would be fine… ******

Higher oil prices…. Funding democrats or republicans this elections,
OR
May be it’s the last chance for Bush cohort to make money!! (if I get it right, top republicans enjoy fair share of direct/indirect profitability in Exxon, Shell, who I believe are direct beneficiaries of rising crude prices)

Thought’s / IDEAS invited…..

<>

Are Subsidies needed!!!

2008-05-16T08:42:00.000-07:00

.... in making... !!

Agflation!!

2008-03-09T07:28:00.000-07:00

What would the RBI do next? are global variables having a upper hand..?
Just brooding over inflation... and rising food prices ('agflation')?

Demand Supply Equation!! Demand drivers and love for monies!!
Wrt Emergining Economies: Say India, China...

1) Rising population >> More bread, chapattis and Kellogg’s consumed.....>> more cereals required to make them...

2) Data points indicate rising income levels are highly co-related with meat consumption...say avg. Chinese consumed 20kg of meat in 1985, now consumes more than 40kg of meat...!! so more meat required, means, more chickens and pigs need to be slaughtered...and hence more fodder required to feed them (chickens/pigs)!!... also comes in the 'love for money'... as meat fetches
higher realization -- farmers would love to switch their occupation to animal husbandry... and hence more pigs/chickens for you, but as the number of pigs/ increase.... they would take away more of your chappatis/bread/kellogs... (I mean equivalent raw material to produce them (i.e. cereals) to feed and grow healthy pigs and chickens)

3) Now, Mr. Bush... and Ethanol policy (most Imp factor, as i see it...)
Did you ever think this could bother you: "... to increase the use of renewable fuels almost fivefold though 2017, primarily relying on ethanol"... in a pledge by President Bush in state of union address some time back...

Few stats:
"113 ethanol distilleries are operating and an 77 new are under construction, will have potential capacity of 11.8 billion gallons, or 44.7 billion liters in USA, according to the Renewable Fuels Association" .... "Record output of 4.9 billion gallons of ethanol last year — triple the 1.6 billion gallons produced in 2000 — accounted for 2.8 percent of the U.S. fuel supply"!!!!!, a trade
group in !! (--extract from nytimes)

As per (news) articles.. US is the largest corn grower and exporter, accounting for 40% of world supply...however, with rising demand for ethanol, CY07 saw 20% of its corn harvest feed ethanol (ignoring stomachs!!) and corn harvest feeding ethanol distilleries is expected to rise to 50% over next two years... if new distilleries come up on schedule... In 2000, US consumed 15mt of maize to produce ethanol, same variable is expected to touch 85mt in current year.. hence the largest exporter of maize (USA)... wont export as much as it used to in the past.. .as it has to feed its fuel guzzling SUV's, hurting.. D-S equation further!!

--- IMPACT ON US!!
Wheat prices up 120% last ten months... corn, maize (up 50% from 06 levels), soyabean, etc.. follow the trend...!! (Wheat prices also impacted by drought in Australia over last two years…)

I love money.. !! So do (now) Richie rich US (maize) farmers...
As prices of maize shot up in US on account of increased demand, farmers began to ‘switch the crops’ from wheat, soyabean and rice...
Articles indicate... maize production for US for 2008 to be almost a quarter high than last year.. which can only happen if the yield of the crop increases or more land is brought under cultivation or the former (starts switching crops).. which would feed D-S gap further....for other crops!

US Govt. has done everything to encourage the same, from subsidies to import tariffs (esp. for cleaner Brazilian ethanol)!! I believe, doing this... .US Govt. achieves a number of objectives... first it reduces its deficit, by decreasing oil imports (though would be a very minute amount), plus... it would able to reduce its farm subsidy bill.. as farmers would now get good prices for their produce.. and could gradually do away with the subsidies, and in turn ..thou not very sure... also help negotiate in the DOHA WTO round... on green box subsidies..and agri product negotiations.. not much of clue on the latter..!!

--Who benefits from these?
The farmer... if he gets the right price (removing the middle man), would stand to benefit maximum…but in our country we have MSP (ie. minimum support price); i.e. the price which the govt. (I believe FCI) pays to the farmers to buy their produce, e.g for wheat currently at Rs1000.
Moreover, to see a political angle, in favour of farmers... CPI (M) would ask the govt. to increase the MSP on agri products as the farmers, not being able to sell their produce at lucrative global prices... (Which can fuel inflation, its not impossible :))!!!

A middle class guy, would stand to lose the most,... as the price of end produce rises, it lowers the price of the money. I would consider the demand for agri produce to be elastic in cases, say some one like me would have the option to switch from Kellogg’s to bread or to biscuit... or some fruit…or say would have a option to cut down on the number of movies i see in a month... keeping the quantum of atta I consume constant *so partly elastic*. However, for a poor guy (migrant, construction worker, etc.), who uses atta (the basic component) of chappatis/rotis -- and atta being the first in the value chain (and also the lowest cost), wont have the option to switch to anything else, but to decrease his consumption of atta.. means *so partly inelastic in nature*, and forced to reduce his consumption... and would feel the pinch the most...!!

--Why only India’s inflation is rising? :)

Developed economies like US and EU... have less than 10% of inflation weight on food, hence minimum impact... vis-à-vis, for developing nations like India (WPI-15.4% Food +6.1% - Non food articles; commonly rffd index), however CPI continues to have 57% wt. on food items; for Bangladesh and Nigeria almost 66% of the consumer price index.

--What would India do? Food for thought...
Despite good domestic harvest of wheat, rice and cotton... we see the domestic prices rising up? why so? a common trend across all products.... I see it as a direct impact of global (US induced) agri-price...hike!! do u... (Check the last paragraph... 'more food for thought')

To keep a check on inflation... countries have imposed price controls on domestic prices... and also banned exports to feed the domestic demand. India has done the latter, and wont be surprised to see the former being implemented (any take on this??)

More Importantly, I don’t see agflation (15%+9% wt. in WPI) directly related (correlation) to softening interest rates,... considering the elastic (middle class)-inelastic (daily wage workers) impact scenario explained above, (i.e. more of Maslow’s hierarchy... staple food...basic necessity) !!

***Hence to conclude, I wont be surprised to see RBI's softening interest rates (to boost IIP- primarily manufacturing growth); as i believe agflation to be mutually exclusive (being impacted by more of global D-S gap, rather than domestic factors). To keep the India growth story alive, one needs capex... and with ECB route frozen (US$20m cap), IPOs going phusssss... bank lending seems the only alternative... hence... softening rates is a must...!! Also not to forget of Tax buoyancy & FD targets, considering.... Corporate taxes contribute (~32%) of total tax revenue!!***

More Food for thought:
"Globally, Food reserves were at their lowest level in 30 years .... with emergency deliveries for 53 days, compared with 169 days in 2007. ".... bbc.com and FED Chief Bernanke admits "US tariff on ethanol imports being eliminated" -- on 8th March, 2008. !!!!

I believe US ethanol demand has global repercussions, with many countries riding high on exports say Indonesia, Malaysia (land exploited, crops shifting to produce more palm-oil), S. America-Brazil (maize, sugar), India(jathropa crop, not really, as it is grown on arid land), US (soyabean produce). This has resulted to alteration in global cultivation on crops, and hence can continue to impact global agri prices, if US doesn’t change its stance on biofuels (ethanol). Not to forget…sugar prices jumped up some time back… on ethanol news in India J

Open to thoughts, views, and debates!! – Views expressed are personal.

Regards,

Ritesh Shah
( wrote on 8th March 2008)

Hyper Inflation !!

2008-02-16T12:30:00.001-08:00

Pondering over Hyper Inflation!!

Brief on the what scenario Zimbabwe is in:

Exchange rate: 7.4mZ$ = 1US$, few months ago it was 2mZ$=1US$
People fleeing the country
Ruled by President Mugabe, more of a dictatorship
So why... Infation at whooping 4000%

Am taking top down approach, though views will go right centre left... !!

President Mugabe to check inflation has capped prices on certain commodities, though it goes against the cause. Say, you are a producer -- with factory cost of the produce coming 100$, however the end price is capped at 80$ only (political situation warrant that, u dont have a excuse there), depsite your raw material cost being higher, i.e. business being economically unviable because the domestic currency has depreciated --> Hence you stop producing it, why would one produce something for a loss... automatically the demand is constant and supply going down..... causes Supply constrained inflation ... ... ...(A)

Now, Zimbabwe has not had good history of BOP -- same has been the case in recent past, with most of the bugdetary revenue already spent... a very obvious mismatch... with no funds to support development projects. Also, With the history of bad international payments and not so healthy political relationship, country finds difficult to raise foreign debt....
So, Mr. Mugabe runs his own printing press..... prints more and more local zimb. dollars -- thereby increasing domestic supply, pushing inflation further.. UP... ... ...(B)

So if you are made a zimb. resident, to save ur A**, you would want to sell of what all domestic currency you have now, as u know the same dollar is going to fetch you far less in the future.... Hence all M1 chasing for stable currencies... (i.e., if u buy USD, u got to pay him something in return ie. Zm$ --- hence demand for USD increases, so USD appreciates and domestic currency depreciates further).... so guess thats the reason for people fleeing the country and more supply and more inflation... (C)
So A+B+C causes HYper INflation !! ~ Hence root cause for the A+B+C, being Poor governance --> BOP going for toss --> no Foreign Debt available --> Print More money... (dictatorship at its best) !! --> Hyper Inflation :)

So this explains the causes for hyper inflation...at 4000 levels,... however there are a few doubts in above discussion... 1. if u know the currency is to depreciate further, who fool would buy it (or exchange it for) 2. there has to be some rationale in the limits of printing dometic currency (say Gold reserves, Country reserves, SDR, etc. etc....)

Looking for comments/corrections/.... :)

"All views expressed are personal"

Chakr!'s this Deepawal! :-)

2007-11-11T01:05:00.000-08:00

Chakri ~ 1 !!

Chakri ~2 !!

The lord mumbai loves ~ Ganesha !!

2007-09-30T02:02:00.000-07:00

Going thru a bit of history, and how Ganesha came in .. !!

"Traditional stories tell that Lord Ganesha was created by goddess Parvati, consort of Lord Shiva. Parvati created Ganesha out of sandalwood paste that she used for her bath and breathed life into the figure. She then set him to stand guard at her door while she bathed. However, while she bathed, Lord Shiva returned and as Ganesha didn't know him, he didn't allow him to enter. Lord Shiva became enraged and severed the head of the child and entered his house. After realizing that he had beheaded his own son, Lord Shiva fixed the head of an elephant in place of Ganesha's head. In this way, Lord Ganesha came to be depicted as the elephant-headed God. "

It was September 18 to be precise, left office by 21 30 (early !!) ~ marched on straight to churchgate... and dropped in at Charni Road !! Sept 18, happens to be the last day of ganesha festival, wherein the mighty lord is immersed!!... hell of a crowd... didnt find it difficult to get down - from the local.. !! as momentum from behind was high (me high on wt. and lots of velocity from behind :-) !! engg. at work ... ) ... huh.... !! was masti for me... !!

(one of the many pics of the lord- Ganesha)

Just moved out of the station, and rushed to my cousins place 2 mins from the station, could not resist clicking pics on the way... the jovial atmosphore, with drums and songs all around,... ppl dancing... like .... what not !!, ... a Q of ganesh idols, on all possible modes of transportation, ... trucks, tractors, laarri's (vegetable wala), cars, in arms.. !!! it was all chaos ... yet things were flowing very smoothly... ... as if no chaos, ppl.... ppl... n just ppl... arnd.. !! the passion that mumbaikars have for the lord, the joy unbound... its hard to believe.... ppl so animated, dancing non-stop.. !! man, its just awesome... somethign not possible to put in words,..... net net... wud say... the passion tat mumbaikars have for the

lord cant be found anywhere else (atleast havent seen the same in baroda or pune).... and it is something one cant miss at all !!

Yup, and a imp. thing, on such occasions if u hadnt had dinner its perfectly fine, u find ppl. offering prasad to everyone... and its good !! :) was enuf to keep me happy, so wont b problem others too !! ;)... also, was surprised to see stall road-side offering 'free' vada-pau's (fav. food of mumbai) to the ppl., thou, didnt try one ... On the way back, boarded the local at charni again... !! the crowd inside also was jst too good !! had a talk with them, they had started since 12 in noon, and was almost 12 hrs now... from they being started, but the smiles on their faces,... and their passion for the lord, just moved me... clicked them too !! had to take permission... from them.. and they all cheered for the click !!

Badly wanted to to go to chowpatty, to witness the actual immersion proceedings but.... ... but 'time again',... and fear of all the road blocks, next day.. reachin work.. was continiously.. at the back of mind... made me pull out of charni road... by 23 30.. but the two hours spent .... were worth it... !!! a day must to witness... for anyone.. who loves the lord... and want to c the passion of mumbaikars,..

(Joy ~ unlimited ... )

A fan says it all !!

2007-09-23T06:05:00.000-07:00

Beauty of a SLR... !!

When you are bugged,... and...if cant find human's along to bug.... .. !! always have a Canon along... !! even a ceiling fan ~ .. can also really make u feel better .... !! ;-) !! Have attempted to capture a fan (at const rpm) with diffnt. sthutter speeds ... Canon gives amazing results, chk it how... :)

This ones dedicated to my another inspiration ~ http://eyesoftheempress.blogspot.com/ :-) check it out too !!

ISO 800 /Shutter speed ~(1/60) seconds/Aperture ~F 4.0

ISO 800 /Shutter speed ~(1/30) seconds/Aperture ~F 5.6

ISO 800 /Shutter speed ~(1/20) seconds/Aperture ~F 7.1

ISO 800 /Shutter speed ~(1/15) seconds/Aperture ~F 8.0

ISO 800 /Shutter speed ~4 seconds/Aperture ~F 29

Subprime as ! get it :)

2007-09-22T21:48:00.000-07:00

Getting Older & Wiser !!!

2007-08-03T07:50:00.000-07:00

A week in life of a poor Analyst !! The Dream Run...

It has been more than two months at the dream job, which has been a experience in itself... right from travelling thru cab, then graduating to local, then bus finally on bike and at times in a friends car..... and shifting from floors at tulsiani chambers (from sixth, to seventh and now at the eighth) !!! not to forget about shuffling across sectors... textiles and metals... during day at work... !!

Day begins by seven thirty,... brush ur teeth, do other necessary, get rolling ...and ready by eight twenty, time by which i make sure am out of the flat.... it wud take anywhere from 18 t0 20mins drive in the mornign to reach nariman point (place where the office is). Its a joyful ride... which i love... along with the ipod which make it a pleasure... driving along the seaside with music banging your ears... was a dream, that i had since was a kid... and travelling at 80kmph with wind, music ....and a cool sea breeze.. is a pleasure and joy in itself.. !!!

So reach office by eight fourty five, have a daily morning meet at nine, one has to be updated about the daily updates in his or her sector, so i need to know everything that happend overnite over the sector under my coverage, else have to be ready to get screwed by someone.... and then one feel really embarassed about not knowing it... so to avoid it..with a cup of tea, take up BS,ET and Mint and scan through ... to survive the grilling of the sales team...and seniors at times !!

Nine fourty to ten, on to the desk... check mails incld. google alerts... daily updates, notes.. blah blah blah..... then... finally comes the much awaited breakfast... either vada or idli or poha or..... somethign... or other.. with the second tea of the day, the.. no. reaches.. 15 by end of day.. tea and coffe's coupled together,... midst of it.. phone rings trin tring.. ther comes in the boss,.... few client delieveries to be worked on... high priorites,... followed by .... RN, EU, iniating coverages..etc., not to forget wokring on excels... modifying current models,creating new ones, at times gets into a real pain ..., but its fun.. to do that... also, u get calls from fund managers and buy side analyst... who start quizzing you on either the sector or the reports that have landed in market against your name, questions can be as simple as gearing ratio, to ... a macro picture... of the sector, at times ask really weird ones, .. but njoi being on the other side of the desk, where some one is now doing DCP to me... As used to be in college where teachers were on the side where i m in rite now... and at times feel really happy to get calls from newspaper journalists like dna money where they ask about your views... but better SHUT up in front of them,... appreciating the fact, tis being too early... :-)

Lunch comes in at around 13 30 hrs, where nityam, Suchit (colleagues) and me meet over for lunch, a quick one in fact.... back on seat by 13 45 where in we discuss the market, few scrips...weekend plans... and anything and everything.... nityam a cool, calm guy.. whereas suchit is a hot potato, sits next to me, starts shouting on phone from 14 00 to 16 00.. with clients, friends (pintu) and what not, where in i get really pissed, and ask him to shut up not less than 10 times in a day,... but he lives in his own world... but, now he is moving to other brokerage house, with a hefty fat check and a new car.... !! so happy and sorry for that...

Work goes on till evening, which lasts till 22 00 to 23 30.. when results are on, as like last few days,... but never feel bored or pissed....feel happy that am learning or knowing something new on everything that am workign on, which keeps me happy... and going.. with a great superior to work with, who encourages you.. verbally and drops u a sms appreciating your work !!

he appreciates the enthu with which i work, and helps keeps me loaded as on my request !!... so he is also happy and so am i...

Finally day ends at 22 or 23 00, there comes again the bike, with music.... , cruising anywhere from 80 to 90kmph is a bliss, starting from hilton, along the necklace, and then through peddar road, haji ali, novartis, atria flyover, worli naka..... passing zig zag between the cars and at times breaking the lanes and struggling to stop on signals, cruise back to the flat in 18-20 odd minutes... drive really rash in the night, somethign that shud not do, but a lot depends on the kind of music that ears hear and neurons get, more or less that(dancing neurons) controlls the speed of the bike,.. if its a john denver, 'living on a jet plane' then... go smooth at 75to80, whereas if its something like zombie, or some other rock... go zig zag, ... ekdum tom cruise way..!! risky it is but fun... !! love it...

Back home, roomies (subhashish & abhishake) waiting to go (till 23 30 in nite, really appreciate that, no words for it...) out dinner, have fud.. at nearby fud joints... most frequently visited being sadanand the sea food (near worli seaface), pulse (nr. prabhadevi chowk), 'udipi', summer park, subway...... tried everhting we could... at times, when reach home early, stroll on worli sea face, beautiful calm place it is... where u just sit back.. and stare at the white waves...crashing on to the rocks, with every hit... on the stone, making one realize of the perseverance that water has to pass through tthe crevice of the stone,...which is philosoply now, deviating i am.. !!love talking on phone while strolling at the sea face.... and on weekends reach there, with a magazine... and enjoy the cool breeze and the sun.... !!

Day ends around 12 05 to 30.... go to sleep, but still find eps, multiples, fccb and at times mosquitoes also... !! thou a 'good night' works now, which is good enuf to keep the latter away, but multiples.. and models keep on swinging... in brain also at night... i hope i dont talk about it in sleep, as used to be the case in college days... with hassan and amardeep complaining abt talking macro & fin in sleep... and engg. days... as santanu used to... waiting for that too happen !!
Thats how the day works for me,... truely speaking has been a dream run... for the two months at the brokerage house, .. i love the work.. and do it for i like it, thou at a pay cut !!!

Picture is taken from the place where i sit on eigth floor, tulsiani chambers.. just got to turn back.. and i get this beautiful view of arabian sea, often when i feel burned out, i just stare at the waves, which really help me rejuvineate myself... and makes me feel great... m lucky to get this corner near window seat... which i love .. !!

On Weekends !!

Weekends... friday, satuday nights freaking out.. is fun, last weeek had a party at liquid lounge, tis week it was at taj president... in a way its going great, good food and good company is all what can ask for on weekends, and am lucky to have both !! so its going great... Also a weekend never goes without a movie... and that too with either raghu or kassu... raghu (ex-patni mate), kassu

(ex spjain mate)... both cool dudes.. Last weeek managed to visit spjain... as had to collect a pay order... went with kassu, meet prof. sarcar (pic below) and prof. preeta george, had a long long chat with both of them... more than an hour with each...!! was cool fun,... talking with prof. sarcar about his views on metals, textiles, indian economy, .... a new and a different perspective.. he gave, but didnt argue... as didnt feel like... with preeta madam, was as usual.. macro, crr... and current state... where she gifted me a macro economics book, felt top of the world... on that... however, forgot to take her autograph on the same, will get it done nxt time when i visit her... latter....., went for die hard 4.0 at adlabs, andheri (w) with kassu dear... good movie, good company, good fun... moved to goregaon - the hub at around nineish... with raghu.. went for zodiac, prior to that had gud fud again.. !!, its fun to have a movie after good fud, feeling full,

he heee !!! believe me its really good, Zodiac, a good movie again, abt a serial killer, a good recommended watch in fact... reached flat at around 1 30 in morning, slept sletp slept.. awake at 11 00.. rush back to the flat in worli, quick bath and small snap..., and then rush to office around four to work.... came back.. little early.... strolled a the seaface, had dinner with malpani (spjain mate) at pulse, discussed again a few scrips, with potential high upside.. adn sector... nice talking to him... full gyan... and fun...came back .. ran through newspapers BT, mint and ET... gud reading.. njoi readin it....and then went to sleep, didnt realize two days just passed by.

Moreover, last few weeks after coming to bombay have been jumping across pune, baroda and chennai... which is fun.... ... !!! one of the weekends had a 250km bike journy from pune to bombay, where by mistake reached JNPT, instead of vashi... and that is how it became 250km instead of 200kms.. as shud be... which was in heavy wind & rain through khandala pass. awesome it was... !! life mai kuch to ho raha hai!!

Chennai! Detroit of the EasT !!

2007-06-24T02:58:00.000-07:00

Day Zero

Left office at 21 30, early as per normal stands, rolled in straight to Anderi (East) ~ Marol via Churchgate... flat 35mins...

Had good time with Kassu & Sush, Had 4 packs of noodles & talks over Yearbook, and general TP ~ didnt let poor kassu sleep till 2 a.m,

Day One

Woke up at 4 00 Am, Forturnately a Rick was waiting,... nice clean traffic and pollution free roads was fun, a smooth ride except few back breaking poth holes.

Mumbai Domestic ~ A Complete makeover, cant believe what PPP can do in india, GVR was responsible for it... it was clean & had good ambience with live screens for cnbc, ndtv and all...
so time pass was not a problem, ...

A Coffee and a Snicker (60INR) is good stuff early mornign, got a shock at 60bucks, but then had to have somethign...so just converted to sing dollars, and came to 2, bought it the same instant ~ good old memories... :) of singapore came back alive, depending on choclates, avoiding
starvation.. !!

Boarded, got the window seat 8F, breath taking views of mumbai... attached a few pics along, though it was prohibited to switch on electronic devices... just could not hold through....

8 30 Am Chennai Calling ~ MAdras, capital of tamil nadu, land of shivaji ~ the boss, whr ppl are just crazy about him.... a living worshipped god for most of the tamilians... you find his posters every where, public transport, walls, ..public toilets, i mean everywhere :-) .. !! funny was it to me..

Good breath taking views of bay of bengal, goood blule coloured beacches.... was a site to watch early morning with clear skies,.. and bright sun head on :) was good !!

Weeding Bells on !!
Reached the Ambal's Guest house, T. Nagar ~ meet The bride and her parents, chatted for a hour.. and then headed for a VVIP suite waitin for me, slept and slept and slept, finally woke up at 15 30 ~ had some sick chicken biryani.... and walked to the mandapam, again chatted for arnd 45 mins and then made the movie...

those 45 mins, were memorable ones ~ seeing ur only classmate (the only girl in a class of 73) puttin on mehndi was a different frame of mind, ... seeign someone who had spend 4 good years.. and realizing that you were gettin old, ppl gettin married, was in a way in two minds, has she gone nuts, or what.. marrying this early, wanted to ask her, but kept quiet, because had done enuf of that prior ot reachin chennai through mails.. ~~ hope all ends wells, and she stays happily ever.. !!

Then made a sweet cutting, was to meet saipriya, anup and anupee ~ went to Adiyar, waitin n waitin at Anand Bhavan, supposed to be a land mark, just beneath the adiyar flyover...
Finally the lady arrived, had some good food, was deprived of it since many hours... didnt have a proper dinner (jst noodles) and breakfast and lucnh today... so was good fun, to have good food and that too in good company !!

Then Came in Mr. Anup and ANupee... went to a nearby hotel orderd a soup initially thought of ordering 1 by 4, but then....Anuppe convinced me to for 1 by 2 as it wud not look good :(

So had fun there, anup didnt allow me to talk to her... waste he is, !! was good fun.... then, he went and left her to her place... and then three of us, made a move to East Coast Road, pics attached,.. where we had long walk on the beach, with cool sites to watch... ppl fighting, begging and also having romance !! that is what i call diversity :) yup, not to forget a few icecreams, and corn with the walk, made it a joyful nite.... were ther till around 23 00 hours, anup's bike was a great help (a newly bought discover, with electr!c start !!) ~ he left her to her place, then we made our way to pizza hut, chatted all recent ups and downs, feeling great... being together.. after alomost 2 months... had good long talks... and was nice... !!

Day Two:

BAck to guest house, at aroudn 1 00 am in the mornign, had two more guests in the room, a surprise it was, not a problem, though had to wake them up early mornign.. !!

Woke up at 7 00 AM, as got straight orders from the bride to be at the mandapam for the ceremonies, was great...as few of the REC mates were there too... so good fun... enjoied typical ceremonies that a tamil marriage has, !! to my surprise, it was not just one or two priest who were ther.... but atleast seven as i could remember, ... and they ask for special treatment.. unlike gujju marriages i guess, thou havent visited one for the entire day, .... its different...

groom's parents gift the priests food n clothes n what not.. all the respect of the world !!
Nice experience it was, and yes.. another thing that woudl click you in a tamil weeding is GOLD,
the bride had put on Gold Chain on the waist, it was not just a chain, it was something like a 15 necklace's coupled together... huge, heavy, but looked great on her !! :-)

then there was a traditional photo session, where we intruded.. and asked them to do somethin innovative, u know wha i m talkin off, something french, swizzz...and all, one shoudl take advantage off apersonal digital slr bro, friend and a professional photographer in making !!

Latter, made a move.. out.... got a bike from saf's friend with a helmet, so began exploring madras, detroit of east, on apna pulsar 150 ~ went to tanishq with nammi to buy a ring, was good,... not very finicky abt it all, got it for a few grands, but was really cool, and woudl look beautiful on her finger... then... went to CCD, few chat... and it was 16 00 ,... had to meet anup and anitha then... .so made a quick move,.. back to the guesthouse, where in dropped the lady... and took saf along...

So borrowed a map from a friend, called up anitha got the address, patavifyed saf to come along.... with reasons.... like he wud waste time in the guest house, n all.. n better it wud b if go n explore sometin aroudn. .!! so he was ready.. so was pulsar...equipped with just a map to head towards vellachery ~ vai anna salai, saidapet, rajbhavan,.... guindy... was a nice drive... running thru the traffic...

not to forget, got caught by traffic police, for breaking signal, started negotiating was asking for 450 bucks, believe me didnt hav that much in pocket also !!, finally negotiations class at a b school, and patience paid me to run away with just 100 bucks, so was happy... on my negotiation skills, somethini to cheer about !! he hee...

Reached Vellachery-Vidyanagar bus stand in no-time... and came in anitha, went to one of the nearby restaurants, was great talkin to elder sis ( one amongst the two sis that i made at spjain!!, good it was the number is just two tis tiem !! ) chatted abt happenings... and all u wud not want to know !! :) was fun... n then moved back towards the guest house, it was a race against time... as had to reach ther by 19 30, Reception was waiting for us....

REached there in time... by 18 00 or so... was great to be with a number of batch mates, including mr. pal singh, the only sadda off our class, came rolling in wiht a turban, and was the only sadda in the reception, with ppl staring a bit at him, thou he didnt realize that !! :) that was fun... and believe me i had invited him to the weeding and not the bride !! he hee.. .that was the fun part... meet also juniours.... and was good fun .... !!

come 22 30, back was anup with his bike ~ went for good old Sharjah Shake (near adiyar flyover, reminded off good old rec kattangal memories, of good healthy shakes, worth just 10-20 bucks range) ~ mind boggling cheap, yet good quality and quantity... relished it truely, surely will have it nxt tiem when will b ther.. !!

went to his place, got things in place, arranged stuff.... as had to reach to the marriage ceremony at 5 30 am,.... things were in place... and dont know why just could not wake up.... and then didnt go....

then, started for some shopping, rolled in saipriya along, she helped me buy a beautiful saree from Nalli's ... and then rushed to anup's flat as had to attend a conference call with a companys management... sharp at 14 30

Anup got a call then from a common friend ... and had to rush to hospital...

we had a quick pizza, and then moved to donate blodd wetn ther, .. to vijaya hospital @vadapillani... he rushed in, anup drove crazily to reach ther.. believe me crazily... he is a decent driver other wise, as the blood bank clses at arnd 17 00, wnet ther.. filled up the forms and all....
but to surprise found had blood pressure low, and hence cud not give the blood... soo was happy atleast that we tried for it... and reached ther in time....

Then, anup, his bike and me.. made a move towards the airport... which was atleast an hour away, made it to CCD on the way, had good coffee.. with a bit of rain on the way.. was truely.... great,.. not to forget, was only then i took off my cam... and started taking pics, in a crazy way, as i always do, .... one of them is attached along... we were drivin at arnd 30kmps... adn was good.. ppl. including traffic police were staring at what we were doing!! but was fun.. !! that all life shud b about....

Reached Airport... slowly n steadily, with good talk on the bike... was fuun.... then anup dear...left for old mahabalipuram road... to get some water !! hee heeh !!

and i boarded for mumbai :) so that was one memorable trip.. !! one would cherish for long.. !!

2007-05-10T05:02:00.000-07:00

Straight from Orkut Testimonial !!

2007-05-08T11:53:00.000-07:00

Photographic passions have scaled novel height,

Veins that are fervent on economics and can take on any financial might.

Enthusiasm brims and fervour to make even energy perspire!

Acumen and patience can take him to where he does aspire!

-By Easwar (http://www.gruntoftheempress.blogspot.com/)

My First Love !!!

2007-05-08T10:39:00.000-07:00

What i Love the most!! my First love !! Monetary Economics !!

I would call it a science; which is not perfect.. because one would never know whenthe actual impact would be felt of the measures taken.... and by the time the impactcomes, some new troubles might be in !! that's fun to me..!!

Say starting with Interest Rates,
....Increasing it.. would decreas the Demand for money...
(yeah, increasing int. rate is tightening/hardening of monetary policy/interest ratesand decreasing is accomdating/softening)

Next is the CRR tool
...Increasing it... would decrease the supply of money

Both of above (Interest Rate & CRR) are tools to contain inflation...

where in the latter is a CRUDE measure i feel, because it makes the money idle...and hence can have far more harmful impact on the economy.. and should be used with care.

Apart from the two above... one very important factor is the psyche the Central Bankplays on the minds off the people... which is through the CREDibility it developsover a period of time...!!!

Inflation i know... is from a range of a few percent .. in japan.. to a few thousand, yes..few thousand 1600% in in Zimbabwe !!

So is it good or bad !! to have inflation !! ?????? or deflation....

prices of goods reduce

profits of companies decrease

companies will hire less people

perception of layoff's in mind's of people

junta will increase their saving levels

hence, reduced demand of goods & Services

therefore reduced production

vicious circle it forms... !!! thats cool isnt it.. !!

Yup, taking it a little more at the macro level... so assuming companies had loans taken,and they are not able to pay the interest amount, so banks would be forced to bring down the interest rates... also ripple impact would be bank would not invest in banksas it would yield low returns, which they are not interested in...

So its a double - Z00L, now as interest rates are low... banks would not wish togive out loans to people.... and so the economy will go down and deflation comes in ..!!
above in diagram,...

less profits

difficult to repay loans

banks forced to decrease interest rates

banks not interested in lending (low yields)

money now idle

Stagnation & Deflation is what i understand...!!is this... correct me if wrong pl.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Now, digressing a bit... some co-relation.. of which we did for SGP...yup, same stuff we observed with the volumes of currency futures at DGCX(Dubai Gold & Commodities Exchange) Where in we were suppose to find the waysin which the volumes were low...

Volumes LoW

High Spreads

Low Volatility

Not many particpants

Vicious circe it forms !!!

How to stop it, simple... increase the volumes, how... if u and me start investing ther :)

The Final Break & Mumbai Blues

2007-05-08T00:54:00.000-07:00

Day ZERO

The Night before.... i reached bombay... started the blues with .... the indian railways -> 'Avadh Express' was suppose to start at 21 30, instead rolled by 2 30 in the morning

Was fortunate to have Ponting (aka Rikesh - School mate) & Cam along to have managed the long wait... where got a chance to observe the way people enjoy road side food near the station & the way corruption rides indian railways....

A few observations....

Believe me its one off the best that have visited... only second too Bombay central... one of the most clean, ligted & elegant structures one would see.... thanks to britons for the bldg ;-)

On corruption... Each train has 3 TT's and a penalty master... they are one cohort ~ observation over a period of time.. !! and the easiest way to spot whether you would be sucessful in bribing them or not is... if u spot them hanging & smiling on the doors of the train.. when the same arrives on the platform... Ponting paid 600bucks... to get to bombay... by a train at 1 30 AM as was his first day for intership at Tata and didnt want to be late :) ... i was part of the deal....too.. but didnt go as found it too expensive :)...

DAY ONE

So ... finally boarded the train @ 2 30 early morning and train reached borivalli at arnd 9 30 A.M again late by a few hours... was fortunate enuf to have friends at goregaon(e) still waitin for me.... and havin accomdated me...

Then... it was dadar around six pm with easwar & lisa (B School Mates) ~ roped in a dhaba near dadar... saw the right column on the menu card.. and made a quick exit.. not for the reason u are thinkin... were interested in s.indian which wasnt served !! ;-)

Moved towards S.Bombay... enjoying the old structures around flora fountain... clickin pics
as usuall... these sculptures are amazing beauty... just perfect are they... !!

Had Bhaji pau with easwar... !! who treated me... !!

It was the day... and the evening easwar warned me off bombay... to be carefull of stuf...
did listen him with all care & concern... but... the next day.. :((((

DAY TWO ~ THE D DAY

The D-Day...The Blues & The Break Through !!

Reached early at Goregaon Station... all full of energy...jumping... that too in formals...
Found that didnt have a cell in the pocket.. wher it was supposed to be... !!

Jumped back out of the local.... kind off ... pissed off totally with myself.. being so careless.... !! not to forget had lost all the contacts including the one of the guy to whom was supposed to call up for the interview !!

On the way to churchgate... talked to one person (mid40's)... about the incident... he told me dont worry kid... he himself had lost the count of how many he had lost... and told me innnovative ways of how a cell can be stolen... which would be out of any one's imagination..!! then felt so happy.. that this was not that unfortunate where in had a chance that might have lost the same because of my
carelessness.... and might not that anyone would have flicked it.

Finally at Churchgate.!!! After a quick Idli Sambhar ~ CAlled up the guy... interview scheduled at 13 00 hours... so had a couple of hours in my pocket.. thought of exploring nariman point... went to a few corporate houses... and seemed like everyone is on a hiring spree ther... and in deep dearth of people ... :)

Back to Tulsiani chamber... 3 rounds of interview.. !! cracking material were they.. really sound technically... who didnt accept any bull shit (gyan i tried to give.. !!).. and were to the point... and eventually fine & happy with me... got the result around four p.m.. as research analyst on sell side, institutional securities... this was the profile i had dreamt off workin on & that too on with a office at nariman point... was say two of my dreams come true..!!! The Day i woudl never forget... loosing a cell phone & baggin a job which i dreamt off thou paying a few lakhs than what i would have other wise got !! :-)) that's me.. a NUT !! for good reasons i have.....

Later on visited one of my juniors & one of my good-father !! :)))

Had good light (:-() dinner... and then moved to andheri (e) to visit kassu & sush... at 23 30 in nite !! nuts again ... left at arnd 12 10 back for goregaon...

DAY THREE

Mumbai... Corruption knocks once again.. tis time in DOLLAR's... !!

REached Office at around 11 30 as had to collect the appointment letter... and visited Dhruv's home.... just amazing it is.. right from the window you can feel the breeze straight from chowpatty... arabian sea.... something one can just dream off.. coupled with the wonderfull people they are and the ambience their home has.. just too good....yup his dad is a architect !!

Now.. moved towards BDTS... cool.. it is.. !! bag checked once again... (first time at churchgate in the morning)!! and the police guy 'Mr. Gorakh Chauhan' ~ found five singaporean dollars in the bag, which i too didnt know were ther... he was a nice uncle but corrupt.. and wanted some money; is i could make out on the first instant... as experience has taught me... as have always got into troubles.. with police when in bombay ...

(prior experience was at the dadar police choki, where has spend around a hour and had tried all tricks (including crying) to get out of that place.. as had a B School interview.. last year.. same time around, which didnt convert :(, finally some dramatics...did help me too get away w/o paying bribe !!! )

So back at BDTS, after 40mins of haggling.. with the uncle... managed to gift him 5$ and walk away... wher those 40mins.. he told me what all & how things can possible go wrong in bombay & his heroic traits, where last week he caught a guy with 30laksh in his bag.. but was sad that he didnt get the reward because all of the zool-bribes were taken at the baadi choki and he was not part of it... as he was just a hawaldar uncle... !! sad it was :)

(YEah Thats ME !! aLL SwEaT in)

Finally it was my turn to bribe, and put my ethics in place... got into the train wiht a general ticket.. bribed 300 bucks... and got a reserved seat; slept; slept and slept.... reahed home 12 30 early morning !!!

This trip... had experience's of the job that i dreamt off; corruption everywhere (being part of the system too); and fun... !!!