What would the RBI do next? are global variables having a upper hand..?
Just brooding over inflation... and rising food prices ('agflation')?
Demand Supply Equation!! Demand drivers and love for monies!!
Wrt Emergining Economies: Say India, China...
1) Rising population >> More bread, chapattis and Kellogg’s consumed.....>> more cereals required to make them...
2) Data points indicate rising income levels are highly co-related with meat consumption...say avg. Chinese consumed 20kg of meat in 1985, now consumes more than 40kg of meat...!! so more meat required, means, more chickens and pigs need to be slaughtered...and hence more fodder required to feed them (chickens/pigs)!!... also comes in the 'love for money'... as meat fetches
higher realization -- farmers would love to switch their occupation to animal husbandry... and hence more pigs/chickens for you, but as the number of pigs/ increase.... they would take away more of your chappatis/bread/kellogs... (I mean equivalent raw material to produce them (i.e. cereals) to feed and grow healthy pigs and chickens)
3) Now, Mr. Bush... and Ethanol policy (most Imp factor, as i see it...)
Did you ever think this could bother you: "... to increase the use of renewable fuels almost fivefold though 2017, primarily relying on ethanol"... in a pledge by President Bush in state of union address some time back...
Few stats:
"113 ethanol distilleries are operating and an 77 new are under construction, will have potential capacity of 11.8 billion gallons, or 44.7 billion liters in USA, according to the Renewable Fuels Association" .... "Record output of 4.9 billion gallons of ethanol last year — triple the 1.6 billion gallons produced in 2000 — accounted for 2.8 percent of the U.S. fuel supply"!!!!!, a trade
group in !! (--extract from nytimes)
As per (news) articles.. US is the largest corn grower and exporter, accounting for 40% of world supply...however, with rising demand for ethanol, CY07 saw 20% of its corn harvest feed ethanol (ignoring stomachs!!) and corn harvest feeding ethanol distilleries is expected to rise to 50% over next two years... if new distilleries come up on schedule... In 2000, US consumed 15mt of maize to produce ethanol, same variable is expected to touch 85mt in current year.. hence the largest exporter of maize (USA)... wont export as much as it used to in the past.. .as it has to feed its fuel guzzling SUV's, hurting.. D-S equation further!!
--- IMPACT ON US!!
Wheat prices up 120% last ten months... corn, maize (up 50% from 06 levels), soyabean, etc.. follow the trend...!! (Wheat prices also impacted by drought in Australia over last two years…)
I love money.. !! So do (now) Richie rich US (maize) farmers...
As prices of maize shot up in US on account of increased demand, farmers began to ‘switch the crops’ from wheat, soyabean and rice...
Articles indicate... maize production for US for 2008 to be almost a quarter high than last year.. which can only happen if the yield of the crop increases or more land is brought under cultivation or the former (starts switching crops).. which would feed D-S gap further....for other crops!
US Govt. has done everything to encourage the same, from subsidies to import tariffs (esp. for cleaner Brazilian ethanol)!! I believe, doing this... .US Govt. achieves a number of objectives... first it reduces its deficit, by decreasing oil imports (though would be a very minute amount), plus... it would able to reduce its farm subsidy bill.. as farmers would now get good prices for their produce.. and could gradually do away with the subsidies, and in turn ..thou not very sure... also help negotiate in the DOHA WTO round... on green box subsidies..and agri product negotiations.. not much of clue on the latter..!!
--Who benefits from these?
The farmer... if he gets the right price (removing the middle man), would stand to benefit maximum…but in our country we have MSP (ie. minimum support price); i.e. the price which the govt. (I believe FCI) pays to the farmers to buy their produce, e.g for wheat currently at Rs1000.
Moreover, to see a political angle, in favour of farmers... CPI (M) would ask the govt. to increase the MSP on agri products as the farmers, not being able to sell their produce at lucrative global prices... (Which can fuel inflation, its not impossible :))!!!
A middle class guy, would stand to lose the most,... as the price of end produce rises, it lowers the price of the money. I would consider the demand for agri produce to be elastic in cases, say some one like me would have the option to switch from Kellogg’s to bread or to biscuit... or some fruit…or say would have a option to cut down on the number of movies i see in a month... keeping the quantum of atta I consume constant *so partly elastic*. However, for a poor guy (migrant, construction worker, etc.), who uses atta (the basic component) of chappatis/rotis -- and atta being the first in the value chain (and also the lowest cost), wont have the option to switch to anything else, but to decrease his consumption of atta.. means *so partly inelastic in nature*, and forced to reduce his consumption... and would feel the pinch the most...!!
--Why only India’s inflation is rising? :)
Developed economies like US and EU... have less than 10% of inflation weight on food, hence minimum impact... vis-à-vis, for developing nations like India (WPI-15.4% Food +6.1% - Non food articles; commonly rffd index), however CPI continues to have 57% wt. on food items; for Bangladesh and Nigeria almost 66% of the consumer price index.
--What would India do? Food for thought...
Despite good domestic harvest of wheat, rice and cotton... we see the domestic prices rising up? why so? a common trend across all products.... I see it as a direct impact of global (US induced) agri-price...hike!! do u... (Check the last paragraph... 'more food for thought')
To keep a check on inflation... countries have imposed price controls on domestic prices... and also banned exports to feed the domestic demand. India has done the latter, and wont be surprised to see the former being implemented (any take on this??)
More Importantly, I don’t see agflation (15%+9% wt. in WPI) directly related (correlation) to softening interest rates,... considering the elastic (middle class)-inelastic (daily wage workers) impact scenario explained above, (i.e. more of Maslow’s hierarchy... staple food...basic necessity) !!
***Hence to conclude, I wont be surprised to see RBI's softening interest rates (to boost IIP- primarily manufacturing growth); as i believe agflation to be mutually exclusive (being impacted by more of global D-S gap, rather than domestic factors). To keep the India growth story alive, one needs capex... and with ECB route frozen (US$20m cap), IPOs going phusssss... bank lending seems the only alternative... hence... softening rates is a must...!! Also not to forget of Tax buoyancy & FD targets, considering.... Corporate taxes contribute (~32%) of total tax revenue!!***
More Food for thought:
"Globally, Food reserves were at their lowest level in 30 years .... with emergency deliveries for 53 days, compared with 169 days in 2007. ".... bbc.com and FED Chief Bernanke admits "US tariff on ethanol imports being eliminated" -- on 8th March, 2008. !!!!
I believe US ethanol demand has global repercussions, with many countries riding high on exports say Indonesia, Malaysia (land exploited, crops shifting to produce more palm-oil), S. America-Brazil (maize, sugar), India(jathropa crop, not really, as it is grown on arid land), US (soyabean produce). This has resulted to alteration in global cultivation on crops, and hence can continue to impact global agri prices, if US doesn’t change its stance on biofuels (ethanol). Not to forget…sugar prices jumped up some time back… on ethanol news in India J
Open to thoughts, views, and debates!! – Views expressed are personal.
Regards,
Ritesh Shah
( wrote on 8th March 2008)
Sunday, March 9, 2008
Saturday, February 16, 2008
Hyper Inflation !!
Pondering over Hyper Inflation!!
Brief on the what scenario Zimbabwe is in:
Exchange rate: 7.4mZ$ = 1US$, few months ago it was 2mZ$=1US$
People fleeing the country
Ruled by President Mugabe, more of a dictatorship
So why... Infation at whooping 4000%
Am taking top down approach, though views will go right centre left... !!
President Mugabe to check inflation has capped prices on certain commodities, though it goes against the cause. Say, you are a producer -- with factory cost of the produce coming 100$, however the end price is capped at 80$ only (political situation warrant that, u dont have a excuse there), depsite your raw material cost being higher, i.e. business being economically unviable because the domestic currency has depreciated --> Hence you stop producing it, why would one produce something for a loss... automatically the demand is constant and supply going down..... causes Supply constrained inflation ... ... ...(A)
Now, Zimbabwe has not had good history of BOP -- same has been the case in recent past, with most of the bugdetary revenue already spent... a very obvious mismatch... with no funds to support development projects. Also, With the history of bad international payments and not so healthy political relationship, country finds difficult to raise foreign debt....
So, Mr. Mugabe runs his own printing press..... prints more and more local zimb. dollars -- thereby increasing domestic supply, pushing inflation further.. UP... ... ...(B)
So if you are made a zimb. resident, to save ur A**, you would want to sell of what all domestic currency you have now, as u know the same dollar is going to fetch you far less in the future.... Hence all M1 chasing for stable currencies... (i.e., if u buy USD, u got to pay him something in return ie. Zm$ --- hence demand for USD increases, so USD appreciates and domestic currency depreciates further).... so guess thats the reason for people fleeing the country and more supply and more inflation... (C)
So A+B+C causes HYper INflation !! ~ Hence root cause for the A+B+C, being Poor governance --> BOP going for toss --> no Foreign Debt available --> Print More money... (dictatorship at its best) !! --> Hyper Inflation :)
So this explains the causes for hyper inflation...at 4000 levels,... however there are a few doubts in above discussion... 1. if u know the currency is to depreciate further, who fool would buy it (or exchange it for) 2. there has to be some rationale in the limits of printing dometic currency (say Gold reserves, Country reserves, SDR, etc. etc....)
Looking for comments/corrections/.... :)
"All views expressed are personal"
Brief on the what scenario Zimbabwe is in:
Exchange rate: 7.4mZ$ = 1US$, few months ago it was 2mZ$=1US$
People fleeing the country
Ruled by President Mugabe, more of a dictatorship
So why... Infation at whooping 4000%
Am taking top down approach, though views will go right centre left... !!
President Mugabe to check inflation has capped prices on certain commodities, though it goes against the cause. Say, you are a producer -- with factory cost of the produce coming 100$, however the end price is capped at 80$ only (political situation warrant that, u dont have a excuse there), depsite your raw material cost being higher, i.e. business being economically unviable because the domestic currency has depreciated --> Hence you stop producing it, why would one produce something for a loss... automatically the demand is constant and supply going down..... causes Supply constrained inflation ... ... ...(A)
Now, Zimbabwe has not had good history of BOP -- same has been the case in recent past, with most of the bugdetary revenue already spent... a very obvious mismatch... with no funds to support development projects. Also, With the history of bad international payments and not so healthy political relationship, country finds difficult to raise foreign debt....
So, Mr. Mugabe runs his own printing press..... prints more and more local zimb. dollars -- thereby increasing domestic supply, pushing inflation further.. UP... ... ...(B)
So if you are made a zimb. resident, to save ur A**, you would want to sell of what all domestic currency you have now, as u know the same dollar is going to fetch you far less in the future.... Hence all M1 chasing for stable currencies... (i.e., if u buy USD, u got to pay him something in return ie. Zm$ --- hence demand for USD increases, so USD appreciates and domestic currency depreciates further).... so guess thats the reason for people fleeing the country and more supply and more inflation... (C)
So A+B+C causes HYper INflation !! ~ Hence root cause for the A+B+C, being Poor governance --> BOP going for toss --> no Foreign Debt available --> Print More money... (dictatorship at its best) !! --> Hyper Inflation :)
So this explains the causes for hyper inflation...at 4000 levels,... however there are a few doubts in above discussion... 1. if u know the currency is to depreciate further, who fool would buy it (or exchange it for) 2. there has to be some rationale in the limits of printing dometic currency (say Gold reserves, Country reserves, SDR, etc. etc....)
Looking for comments/corrections/.... :)
"All views expressed are personal"
Sunday, November 11, 2007
Sunday, September 30, 2007
The lord mumbai loves ~ Ganesha !!
Going thru a bit of history, and how Ganesha came in .. !!
It was September 18 to be precise, left office by 21 30 (early !!) ~ marched on straight to churchgate... and dropped in at Charni Road !! Sept 18, happens to be the last day of ganesha festival, wherein the mighty lord is immersed!!... hell of a crowd... didnt find it difficult to get down - from the local.. !! as momentum from behind was high (me high on wt. and lots of velocity from behind :-) !! engg. at work ... ) ... huh.... !! was masti for me... !!
(one of the many pics of the lord- Ganesha)
Badly wanted to to go to chowpatty, to witness the actual immersion proceedings but.... ... but 'time again',... and fear of all the road blocks, next day.. reachin work.. was continiously.. at the back of mind... made me pull out of charni road... by 23 30.. but the two hours spent .... were worth it... !!! a day must to witness... for anyone.. who loves the lord... and want to c the passion of mumbaikars,..
(Joy ~ unlimited ... )
"Traditional stories tell that Lord Ganesha was created by goddess Parvati, consort of Lord Shiva. Parvati created Ganesha out of sandalwood paste that she used for her bath and breathed life into the figure. She then set him to stand guard at her door while she bathed. However, while she bathed, Lord Shiva returned and as Ganesha didn't know him, he didn't allow him to enter. Lord Shiva became enraged and severed the head of the child and entered his house. After realizing that he had beheaded his own son, Lord Shiva fixed the head of an elephant in place of Ganesha's head. In this way, Lord Ganesha came to be depicted as the elephant-headed God. "
It was September 18 to be precise, left office by 21 30 (early !!) ~ marched on straight to churchgate... and dropped in at Charni Road !! Sept 18, happens to be the last day of ganesha festival, wherein the mighty lord is immersed!!... hell of a crowd... didnt find it difficult to get down - from the local.. !! as momentum from behind was high (me high on wt. and lots of velocity from behind :-) !! engg. at work ... ) ... huh.... !! was masti for me... !!(one of the many pics of the lord- Ganesha)
Just moved out of the station, and rushed to my cousins place 2 mins fro
m the station, could not resist clicking pics on the way... the jovial atmosphore, with drums and songs all around,... ppl dancing... like .... what not !!, ... a Q of ganesh idols, on all possible modes of transportation, ... trucks, tractors, laarri's (vegetable wala), cars, in arms.. !!! it was all chaos ... yet things were flowing very smoothly... ... as if no chaos, ppl.... ppl... n just ppl... arnd.. !! the passion that mumbaikars have for the lord, the joy unbound... its hard to believe.... ppl so animated, dancing non-stop.. !! man, its just awesome... somethign not possible to put in words,..... net net... wud say... the passion tat mumbaikars have for the
m the station, could not resist clicking pics on the way... the jovial atmosphore, with drums and songs all around,... ppl dancing... like .... what not !!, ... a Q of ganesh idols, on all possible modes of transportation, ... trucks, tractors, laarri's (vegetable wala), cars, in arms.. !!! it was all chaos ... yet things were flowing very smoothly... ... as if no chaos, ppl.... ppl... n just ppl... arnd.. !! the passion that mumbaikars have for the lord, the joy unbound... its hard to believe.... ppl so animated, dancing non-stop.. !! man, its just awesome... somethign not possible to put in words,..... net net... wud say... the passion tat mumbaikars have for the lord cant be found anywhere else (atleast havent seen the same in baroda or pune).... and it is something one cant miss at all !!
Yup, and a imp. thing, on such occasions if u hadnt had dinner its perfectly fine, u find ppl. offering prasad to everyone... and its good !! :) was enuf to keep me happy, so wont b problem others too !! ;)... also, was surprised to see stall road-side offering 'free' vada-pau's (fav. food of mumbai) to the ppl., thou, didnt try one ... On the way back, boarded the local at charni again... !! the crowd inside also was jst too good !! had a talk with them, they had started since 12 in noon, and was almost 12 hrs now... from they being started, but the smiles on their faces,... and their passion for the lord, just moved me... clicked them too !! had to take permission... from them.. and they all cheered for the click !!
Badly wanted to to go to chowpatty, to witness the actual immersion proceedings but.... ... but 'time again',... and fear of all the road blocks, next day.. reachin work.. was continiously.. at the back of mind... made me pull out of charni road... by 23 30.. but the two hours spent .... were worth it... !!! a day must to witness... for anyone.. who loves the lord... and want to c the passion of mumbaikars,..(Joy ~ unlimited ... )
Sunday, September 23, 2007
A fan says it all !!
Beauty of a SLR... !!
When you are bugged,... and...if cant find human's along to bug.... .. !! always have a Canon along... !! even a ceiling fan ~ .. can also really make u feel better .... !! ;-) !! Have attempted to capture a fan (at const rpm) with diffnt. sthutter speeds ... Canon gives amazing results, chk it how... :)
This ones dedicated to my another inspiration ~ http://eyesoftheempress.blogspot.com/ :-) check it out too !!
ISO 800 /Shutter speed ~(1/60) seconds/Aperture ~F 4.0
ISO 800 /Shutter speed ~(1/30) seconds/Aperture ~F 5.6
ISO 800 /Shutter speed ~(1/20) seconds/Aperture ~F 7.1
ISO 800 /Shutter speed ~(1/15) seconds/Aperture ~F 8.0
ISO 800 /Shutter speed ~4 seconds/Aperture ~F 29
When you are bugged,... and...if cant find human's along to bug.... .. !! always have a Canon along... !! even a ceiling fan ~ .. can also really make u feel better .... !! ;-) !! Have attempted to capture a fan (at const rpm) with diffnt. sthutter speeds ... Canon gives amazing results, chk it how... :)
This ones dedicated to my another inspiration ~ http://eyesoftheempress.blogspot.com/ :-) check it out too !!
ISO 800 /Shutter speed ~(1/60) seconds/Aperture ~F 4.0
ISO 800 /Shutter speed ~(1/30) seconds/Aperture ~F 5.6
ISO 800 /Shutter speed ~(1/20) seconds/Aperture ~F 7.1
ISO 800 /Shutter speed ~(1/15) seconds/Aperture ~F 8.0
ISO 800 /Shutter speed ~4 seconds/Aperture ~F 29
Saturday, September 22, 2007
Friday, August 3, 2007
Getting Older & Wiser !!!
A week in life of a poor Analyst !! The Dream Run...
It has been more than two months at the dream job, which has been a experience in itself... right from travelling thru cab, then graduating to local, then bus finally on bike and at times in a friends car..... and shifting from floors at tulsiani chambers (from sixth, to seventh and now at the eighth) !!! not to forget about shuffling across sectors... textiles and metals... during day at work... !!
Day begins by seven thirty,... brush ur teeth, do other necessary, get rolling ...and ready by eight twenty, time by which i make sure am out of the flat.... it wud take anywhere from 18 t0 20mins drive in the mornign to reach nariman point (place where the office is). Its a joyful ride... which i love... along with the ipod which make it a pleasure... driving along the seaside with music banging your ears... was a dream, that i had since was a kid... and travelling at 80kmph with wind, music ....and a cool sea breeze.. is a pleasure and joy in itself.. !!!
So reach office by eight fourty five, have a daily morning meet at nine, one has to be updated about the daily updates in his or her sector, so i need to know everything that happend overnite over the sector under my coverage, else have to be ready to get screwed by someone.... and then one feel really embarassed about not knowing it... so to avoid it..with a cup of tea, take up BS,ET and Mint and scan through ... to survive the grilling of the sales team...and seniors at times !!
Nine fourty to ten, on to the desk... check mails incld. google alerts... daily updates, notes.. blah blah blah..... then... finally comes the much awaited breakfast... either vada or idli or poha or..... somethign... or other.. with the second tea of the day, the.. no. reaches.. 15 by end of day.. tea and coffe's coupled together,... midst of it.. phone rings trin tring.. ther comes in the boss,.... few client delieveries to be worked on... high priorites,... followed by .... RN, EU, iniating coverages..etc., not to forget wokring on excels... modifying current models,creating new ones, at times gets into a real pain ..., but its fun.. to do that... also, u get calls from fund managers and buy side analyst... who start quizzing you on either the sector or the reports that have landed in market against your name, questions can be as simple as gearing ratio, to ... a macro picture... of the sector, at times ask really weird ones, .. but njoi being on the other side of the desk, where some one is now doing DCP to me... As used to be in college where teachers were on the side where i m in rite now... and at times feel really happy to get calls from newspaper journalists like dna money where they ask about your views... but better SHUT up in front of them,... appreciating the fact, tis being too early... :-)
Lunch comes in at around 13 30 hrs, where nityam, Suchit (colleagues) and me meet over for lunch, a quick one in fact.... back on seat by 13 45 where in we discuss the market, few scrips...weekend plans... and anything and everything.... nityam a cool, calm guy.. whereas suchit is a hot potato, sits next to me, starts shouting on phone from 14 00 to 16 00.. with clients, friends (pintu) and what not, where in i get really pissed, and ask him to shut up not less than 10 times in a day,... but he lives in his own world... but, now he is moving to other brokerage house, with a hefty fat check and a new car.... !! so happy and sorry for that...
Work goes on till evening, which lasts till 22 00 to 23 30.. when results are on, as like last few days,... but never feel bored or pissed....feel happy that am learning or knowing something new on everything that am workign on, which keeps me happy... and going.. with a great superior to work with, who encourages you.. verbally and drops u a sms appreciating your work !!
he appreciates the enthu with which i work, and helps keeps me loaded as on my request !!... so he is also happy and so am i...
Finally day ends at 22 or 23 00, there comes again the bike, with music.... , cruising anywhere from 80 to 90kmph is a bliss, starting from hilton, along the necklace, and then through peddar road, haji ali, novartis, atria flyover, worli naka..... passing zig zag between the cars and at times breaking the lanes and struggling to stop on signals, cruise back to the flat in 18-20 odd minutes... drive really rash in the night, somethign that shud not do, but a lot depends on the kind of music that ears hear and neurons get, more or less that(dancing neurons) controlls the speed of the bike,.. if its a john denver, 'living on a jet plane' then... go smooth at 75to80, whereas if its something like zombie, or some other rock... go zig zag, ... ekdum tom cruise way..!! risky it is but fun... !! love it...
Back home, roomies (subhashish & abhishake) waiting to go (till 23 30 in nite, really appreciate that, no words for it...) out dinner, have fud.. at nearby fud joints... most frequently visited being sadanand the sea food (near worli seaface), pulse (nr. prabhadevi chowk), 'udipi', summer park, subway...... tried everhting we could... at times, when reach home early, stroll on worli sea face, beautiful calm place it is... where u just sit back.. and stare at the white waves...crashing on to the rocks, with every hit... on the stone, making one realize of the perseverance that water has to pass through tthe crevice of the stone,...which is philosoply now, deviating i am.. !!love talking on phone while strolling at the sea face.... and on weekends reach there, with a magazine... and enjoy the cool breeze and the sun.... !!
Day ends around 12 05 to 30.... go to sleep, but still find eps, multiples, fccb and at times mosquitoes also... !! thou a 'good night' works now, which is good enuf to keep the latter away, but multiples.. and models keep on swinging... in brain also at night... i hope i dont talk about it in sleep, as used to be the case in college days... with hassan and amardeep complaining abt talking macro & fin in sleep... and engg. days... as santanu used to... waiting for that too happen !!
Thats how the day works for me,... truely speaking has been a dream run... for the two months at the brokerage house, .. i love the work.. and do it for i like it, thou at a pay cut !!!
Picture is taken from the place where i sit on eigth floor, tulsiani chambers.. just got to turn back.. and i get this beautiful view of arabian sea, often when i feel burned out, i just stare at the waves, which really help me rejuvineate myself... and makes me feel great... m lucky to get this corner near window seat... which i love .. !!
On Weekends !!
Weekends... friday, satuday nights freaking out.. is fun, last weeek had a party at liquid lounge, tis week it was at taj president... in a way its going great, good food and good company is all what can ask for on weekends, and am lucky to have both !! so its going great... Also a weekend never goes without a movie... and that too with either raghu or kassu... raghu (ex-patni mate), kassu
(ex spjain mate)... both cool dudes.. Last weeek managed to visit spjain... as had to collect a pay order... went with kassu, meet prof. sarcar (pic below) and prof. preeta george, had a long long chat with both of them... more than an hour with each...!! was cool fun,... talking with prof. sarcar about his views on metals, textiles, indian economy, .... a new and a different perspective.. he gave, but didnt argue... as didnt feel like... with preeta madam, was as usual.. macro, crr... and current state... where she gifted me a macro economics book, felt top of the world... on that... however, forgot to take her autograph on the same, will get it done nxt time when i visit her... latter....., went for die hard 4.0 at adlabs, andheri (w) with kassu dear... good movie, good company, good fun... moved to goregaon - the hub at around nineish... with raghu.. went for zodiac, prior to that had gud fud again.. !!, its fun to have a movie after good fud, feeling full,
he heee !!! believe me its really good, Zodiac, a good movie again, abt a serial killer, a good recommended watch in fact... reached flat at around 1 30 in morning, slept sletp slept.. awake at 11 00.. rush back to the flat in worli, quick bath and small snap..., and then rush to office around four to work.... came back.. little early.... strolled a the seaface, had dinner with malpani (spjain mate) at pulse, discussed again a few scrips, with potential high upside.. adn sector... nice talking to him... full gyan... and fun...came back .. ran through newspapers BT, mint and ET... gud reading.. njoi readin it....and then went to sleep, didnt realize two days just passed by.
Moreover, last few weeks after coming to bombay have been jumping across pune, baroda and chennai... which is fun.... ... !!! one of the weekends had a 250km bike journy from pune to bombay, where by mistake reached JNPT, instead of vashi... and that is how it became 250km instead of 200kms.. as shud be... which was in heavy wind & rain through khandala pass. awesome it was... !! life mai kuch to ho raha hai!!
It has been more than two months at the dream job, which has been a experience in itself... right from travelling thru cab, then graduating to local, then bus finally on bike and at times in a friends car..... and shifting from floors at tulsiani chambers (from sixth, to seventh and now at the eighth) !!! not to forget about shuffling across sectors... textiles and metals... during day at work... !!
Day begins by seven thirty,... brush ur teeth, do other necessary, get rolling ...and ready by eight twenty, time by which i make sure am out of the flat.... it wud take anywhere from 18 t0 20mins drive in the mornign to reach nariman point (place where the office is). Its a joyful ride... which i love... along with the ipod which make it a pleasure... driving along the seaside with music banging your ears... was a dream, that i had since was a kid... and travelling at 80kmph with wind, music ....and a cool sea breeze.. is a pleasure and joy in itself.. !!!
So reach office by eight fourty five, have a daily morning meet at nine, one has to be updated about the daily updates in his or her sector, so i need to know everything that happend overnite over the sector under my coverage, else have to be ready to get screwed by someone.... and then one feel really embarassed about not knowing it... so to avoid it..with a cup of tea, take up BS,ET and Mint and scan through ... to survive the grilling of the sales team...and seniors at times !!
Nine fourty to ten, on to the desk... check mails incld. google alerts... daily updates, notes.. blah blah blah..... then... finally comes the much awaited breakfast... either vada or idli or poha or..... somethign... or other.. with the second tea of the day, the.. no. reaches.. 15 by end of day.. tea and coffe's coupled together,... midst of it.. phone rings trin tring.. ther comes in the boss,.... few client delieveries to be worked on... high priorites,... followed by .... RN, EU, iniating coverages..etc., not to forget wokring on excels... modifying current models,creating new ones, at times gets into a real pain ..., but its fun.. to do that... also, u get calls from fund managers and buy side analyst... who start quizzing you on either the sector or the reports that have landed in market against your name, questions can be as simple as gearing ratio, to ... a macro picture... of the sector, at times ask really weird ones, .. but njoi being on the other side of the desk, where some one is now doing DCP to me... As used to be in college where teachers were on the side where i m in rite now... and at times feel really happy to get calls from newspaper journalists like dna money where they ask about your views... but better SHUT up in front of them,... appreciating the fact, tis being too early... :-)
Lunch comes in at around 13 30 hrs, where nityam, Suchit (colleagues) and me meet over for lunch, a quick one in fact.... back on seat by 13 45 where in we discuss the market, few scrips...weekend plans... and anything and everything.... nityam a cool, calm guy.. whereas suchit is a hot potato, sits next to me, starts shouting on phone from 14 00 to 16 00.. with clients, friends (pintu) and what not, where in i get really pissed, and ask him to shut up not less than 10 times in a day,... but he lives in his own world... but, now he is moving to other brokerage house, with a hefty fat check and a new car.... !! so happy and sorry for that...Work goes on till evening, which lasts till 22 00 to 23 30.. when results are on, as like last few days,... but never feel bored or pissed....feel happy that am learning or knowing something new on everything that am workign on, which keeps me happy... and going.. with a great superior to work with, who encourages you.. verbally and drops u a sms appreciating your work !!
he appreciates the enthu with which i work, and helps keeps me loaded as on my request !!... so he is also happy and so am i...
Finally day ends at 22 or 23 00, there comes again the bike, with music.... , cruising anywhere from 80 to 90kmph is a bliss, starting from hilton, along the necklace, and then through peddar road, haji ali, novartis, atria flyover, worli naka..... passing zig zag between the cars and at times breaking the lanes and struggling to stop on signals, cruise back to the flat in 18-20 odd minutes... drive really rash in the night, somethign that shud not do, but a lot depends on the kind of music that ears hear and neurons get, more or less that(dancing neurons) controlls the speed of the bike,.. if its a john denver, 'living on a jet plane' then... go smooth at 75to80, whereas if its something like zombie, or some other rock... go zig zag, ... ekdum tom cruise way..!! risky it is but fun... !! love it...
Back home, roomies (subhashish & abhishake) waiting to go (till 23 30 in nite, really appreciate that, no words for it...) out dinner, have fud.. at nearby fud joints... most frequently visited being sadanand the sea food (near worli seaface), pulse (nr. prabhadevi chowk), 'udipi', summer park, subway...... tried everhting we could... at times, when reach home early, stroll on worli sea face, beautiful calm place it is... where u just sit back.. and stare at the white waves...crashing on to the rocks, with every hit... on the stone, making one realize of the perseverance that water has to pass through tthe crevice of the stone,...which is philosoply now, deviating i am.. !!love talking on phone while strolling at the sea face.... and on weekends reach there, with a magazine... and enjoy the cool breeze and the sun.... !!
Day ends around 12 05 to 30.... go to sleep, but still find eps, multiples, fccb and at times mosquitoes also... !! thou a 'good night' works now, which is good enuf to keep the latter away, but multiples.. and models keep on swinging... in brain also at night... i hope i dont talk about it in sleep, as used to be the case in college days... with hassan and amardeep complaining abt talking macro & fin in sleep... and engg. days... as santanu used to... waiting for that too happen !!
Thats how the day works for me,... truely speaking has been a dream run... for the two months at the brokerage house, .. i love the work.. and do it for i like it, thou at a pay cut !!!
Picture is taken from the place where i sit on eigth floor, tulsiani chambers.. just got to turn back.. and i get this beautiful view of arabian sea, often when i feel burned out, i just stare at the waves, which really help me rejuvineate myself... and makes me feel great... m lucky to get this corner near window seat... which i love .. !!
On Weekends !!
Weekends... friday, satuday nights freaking out.. is fun, last weeek had a party at liquid lounge, tis week it was at taj president... in a way its going great, good food and good company is all what can ask for on weekends, and am lucky to have both !! so its going great... Also a weekend never goes without a movie... and that too with either raghu or kassu... raghu (ex-patni mate), kassu
(ex spjain mate)... both cool dudes.. Last weeek managed to visit spjain... as had to collect a pay order... went with kassu, meet prof. sarcar (pic below) and prof. preeta george, had a long long chat with both of them... more than an hour with each...!! was cool fun,... talking with prof. sarcar about his views on metals, textiles, indian economy, .... a new and a different perspective.. he gave, but didnt argue... as didnt feel like... with preeta madam, was as usual.. macro, crr... and current state... where she gifted me a macro economics book, felt top of the world... on that... however, forgot to take her autograph on the same, will get it done nxt time when i visit her... latter....., went for die hard 4.0 at adlabs, andheri (w) with kassu dear... good movie, good company, good fun... moved to goregaon - the hub at around nineish... with raghu.. went for zodiac, prior to that had gud fud again.. !!, its fun to have a movie after good fud, feeling full,
he heee !!! believe me its really good, Zodiac, a good movie again, abt a serial killer, a good recommended watch in fact... reached flat at around 1 30 in morning, slept sletp slept.. awake at 11 00.. rush back to the flat in worli, quick bath and small snap..., and then rush to office around four to work.... came back.. little early.... strolled a the seaface, had dinner with malpani (spjain mate) at pulse, discussed again a few scrips, with potential high upside.. adn sector... nice talking to him... full gyan... and fun...came back .. ran through newspapers BT, mint and ET... gud reading.. njoi readin it....and then went to sleep, didnt realize two days just passed by.
Moreover, last few weeks after coming to bombay have been jumping across pune, baroda and chennai... which is fun.... ... !!! one of the weekends had a 250km bike journy from pune to bombay, where by mistake reached JNPT, instead of vashi... and that is how it became 250km instead of 200kms.. as shud be... which was in heavy wind & rain through khandala pass. awesome it was... !! life mai kuch to ho raha hai!!
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